Round Table Discussion on ‘Emerging Powers in Relation to Global Change and Nurturing Peace in Adversarial Relationships ’
Location : Seminar Hall I, India International Centre (New Building)
Speaker : Dr. Charles Kupchan, Senior Fellow, CFR
Discussant : Professor Varun Sahani, CIPOD, JNU
RSVP : Aniket Bhavthankar- aniketb@spsindia.in/ +91-9718851894
SUMMARY
The talk centered on highlighting the practical challenges of re-distribution of power in the globalized, interconnected world in the next few decades and the imperative of preserving the rule-based international system that has evolved under Western hegemony.
According to Prof Kupchan, the current redistribution marks a ‘System Transformation’, in that, the new actors who are emerging as pivot powers, will have their own concept of the central principles / elements in shaping international cooperation and engagement in the near future. As power transfers progressively from the US/EU/ Japan combine to India, China, Brazil and certain other groupings of nations, the transition has to be ensured through diplomacy and political negotiations that it is consensual and by calibrated design rather than accidental and disruptive means.
This shift that Kupchan termed as a ‘Moment of Change’ in the historical context, marks the closing of an era that began with the end of the Napoleonic wars in 1815. This era was marked by the economic-political and military power of the Western hemisphere that created a globalized, interdependent world overseen by Western powers. The concentration of power centered in North Western Europe before shifting across the Atlantic to North America. A major characteristic of the current shift in power is that the interdependent world of the early 21st century will no longer be anchored around certain geographical locations or an ideological/political model. From the already manifest trends, it is clear that power is shifting to multiple actors with no correspondence of vision, ideas or political-economic systems.
And herein lies the complex challenge of this re-distribution – the central challenge being how to ensure that this shift of power is peaceful and not disruptive of the rule based international order. According to Professor Varun Sahani the lead discussant, power is moving from a specific cohesive area, namely the US/European Union, that has a strong institutional architecture in terms of regional integration process, military alliances and cooperative security architecture to a region, the Asia-Pacific, which is relatively fractured and non-cohesive. This, combined with the divergent interests and views of new powers will require some form of rapprochement between the existing and new powers on one hand and within the emerging powers on the other. This is imperative, if anarchy is to be avoided in the international rule based system.
Based on his study of almost 20 examples in his book, ‘How Enemies Become Friends: The Sources of Stable Peace’, Professor Kupchan identified a four phased approach of how rapprochement works in international relations, whereby ‘enemies become friends’.
These include: ‘Unilateral Accommodation’ – When one player makes an unambiguously bold step that shows clear intent of establishing peaceful relations, prompted however by necessity, not by altruism.
‘Reciprocal Restraint’ – The phase where both parties test the intent of the other through trading of concessions on various important themes. The first two phases are the arena of high diplomacy and are conducted in relative secrecy away from the domain of public gaze.
‘Societal Integration’ – This phase ensues when the politicians and diplomats feel that enough progress has been made in cloistered bilateral/multi-lateral engagement to move the issue into the public domain. This is the time when media, business chambers and civil society groups get involved;
‘Change in Narrative’ – Negative images, symbolism and perceptions about the other country changes in a gradual manner.
Certain key research findings by Prof. Kupchan can be useful tools of analysis at the disposal of diplomats and politicians while taking major decisions in bilateral/multilateral relations. First, that economic interdependence is less important than diplomacy and political engagement on outstanding issues of territory, military or geo-strategic interests. Second, regime type matters much less than is the common perception. There is no guarantee that democratic countries would automatically ‘bond’ nor that autocracies will always promote conflict. Third, domestic politics of rapprochement are more significant than any international obstacles. And last, while embarking on rapprochement it, is important to keep expectations realistic by not overstating the shared interests and negating issues of divergence.
Based on this theoretical approach, some interesting implications for India-China-Brazil-Russia and the international order were discussed during the Q&A session. Prof Sahani, made a distinction between the ‘Rising’ and ‘Emerging’ powers. For him China in the role of the former already has a system shaping role today, while India and Brazil have signaled their intent to acquire these capabilities but are not quite there yet. Thus what China does will have a major bearing on how international rules, especially those related to global justice, intervention and sovereignty and international security will be revised. However, India and Brazil will continue to be the swing factors which can temper or mediate China’s stand.
Concerns were also raised about whether the ‘newly emerging’ powers will have a revisionist impact on the rule based international order or a transformational impact. The former implies that the system and its fundamental drivers will not change, and the new actors will operate in the framework of existing norms and international code. However, the second exigency implies that the new actors will play by their rules, thereby changing the major priorities and focal areas.
This shift of power will however be constrained by two sets of factors. A new set of problems like the Environment, Nuclear Proliferation et al will require a form of ‘Global Governance’ and as such limit the maneuvering capacity of the emerging powers. Second, an inherent unwillingness of the ‘emerging powers’ to take the role of a global hegemon will eventually lead to a grouping of nations that will have to enforce the doctrine of ‘last resort provider’ and ‘responsibility to protect’ in the international arena.
It was also stated that while the four phases of how ‘enemies become friend’ might have been relevant to the cases studied by Prof. Kupchan, the latest of which dated back to the mid 20th century, this trajectory becomes difficult in today’s information technology revolution. It is very difficult to conduct negotiations/offer concessions to purported ‘enemies’ away from the glare of the print, electronic and social media. Several critical international negotiations have been hampered due to the resultant domestic populist politics of the negotiating countries – a case in point being the extended negotiations between Iran and the USA.