Society for Policy Studies In collaboration with India Habitat Centre Invites you to its
Ambassador Lecture Series on Current Developments in Afghanistan: Relevance for India
Speaker: Amb. Jayant Prasad, former Ambassador to Afghanistan
Programme Details
Date : Tuesday, 11 March 2014
Time: 7.00 PM
Venue: Gulmohar Hall, India Habitat Centre, New Delhi
Registration and Tea/Coffee: 6.30 PM onwards
For more details, please contact
Aniket Bhavthankar II aniketb@spsindia.in II 011-41071299
Speaker: Ambassador Jayant Prasad
Jayant Prasad lectured on modern Indian history for two years at St. Stephen’s College, Delhi University, before joining the Indian Foreign Service in 1976.
In Indian Missions abroad, he has served as the Ambassador of India to Nepal (2011-13), Ambassador to Afghanistan (2008-2010), Permanent Representative of India to the Conference on Disarmament, Geneva (2004-07), and Ambassador to Algeria (1996-98).
In the Ministry of External Affairs, New Delhi, he served as Special Secretary, Public Diplomacy (2010-11), head of the Americas Division (2001-04).
Afghanistan: Presidential election and aftermath
The Society for Policy Studies (SPS), in collaboration with the India Habitat Centre (IHC), organized a talk on ‘Current Developments in Afghanistan: Relevance for India’ by former Indian ambassador to Afghanistan, Jayant Prasad, on March 11, 2014 as a part of the Ambassador Lecture Series. Former Indian ambassador I.P. Khosla chaired the session.
Amb Jayant Prasad divided his lecture into two parts: first, he touched upon current developments in Afghanistan and, thereafter, he focused on India’s involvement in Afghanistan.
Amb Prasad mentioned that the biggest challenge facing Afghanistan was stabilization. He remarked that the country is passing through three types of transitions. First transition is about security of the country and this ball has already been set into motion. International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) is in the final stages of the transfer of responsibility of security to the Afghan National Security Force (ANSF). In this context, it is interesting to note that last two months saw increasing number of causalities on part of Taliban, which was good sign, but ANSF needs to be strengthened further. The scheduled presidential election in the month of April commences the political transition. He remarked that Afghanistan will have new a president latest by June 2014.
There are three serious contenders for the post of President, namely Ashraf Ghani Ahmadzai, Abdullah Abdullah and Zalmai Rassoul. Interestingly, their Vice Presidential mates are from different ethnicity. This suggests positive political churn within the country. However, he remarked that there is a possibility of ballot stuffing, particularly in the Pashtun areas of the country and this may pose challenge to legitimacy of the election results. Economic transition of Afghanistan is also an important aspect. Afghan History indicates that one of the biggest challenges for stabilization of Afghanistan will be to ensure sustainable economic growth.. Soon after the commencement of the drawdown, western countries have started cutting economic assistance to Afghanistan. The United States has maintained that they will cut down the economic assistance if the Bilateral Security Agreement is not signed. Amb Prasad opined that, international community should learn from history and continue providing economic assistance to Afghanistan.
While talking about the Indian involvement in Afghanistan, he mentioned that India has never turned its back on Afghanistan and has stood by the Afghan people. India does not want Afghanistan to be safe-haven for extremist and terrorists. India is suspicious that rise of Taliban may affect security situation in the Kashmir valley. Hence, India wanted to see a strong and stable Afghanistan and is therefore assisting Afghanistan in the development of human resources and infrastructure. India is at the forefront of institution building and the construction of Afghan Parliament building symbolizes the same. He reminded that India never got protection from ISAF for its development projects in Afghanistan and Indian projects were always guarded by Indo-Tibetan Border Police and informal security forces.
He felt that the worst case scenario for Afghanistan post 2014 would be reversion to conditions similar to those prevailing in the period 1996-2001 or the country slips into civil war after disintegrating on ethnic lines. He was optimistic that, Afghanistan would not return to pre-2001 period, though he was apprehensive that Taliban may gain strength in Southern and Eastern parts of the country. He also drew the attention of the audience to the fact that Afghanistan was the only country in South Asia that has not seen a secessionist in recent history.
Amb Prasad also dwelled on the fact that besides being a potential source of extremist threat Afghanistan also produces more than eighty percent of the world’s opium. As a major source of narcotics production and trafficking in the region Afghanistan is having a destabilizing effect on its neighbours and their people. The opium production in Afghanistan has increased post-2001 and is an important source of funding for the Taliban. There is also a fear that as the ISAF and US drawdown concludes there will a drop in financial infusion in the Afghan economy due to less demand for products and services. Some the funds expended by the ISAF in Afghanistan were also finding their way to the Taliban through the informal economy. Drying up of these funds will force the Taliban to look for other sources and increased narcotics production will be an option.
In conclusion, Amb Prasad said that India has both short-term as well as long-term objectives with respect to its policy in Afghanistan. In short-term, India wants Afghanistan to stand on its own feet and take independent decisions. In long term, India wants Afghanistan to emerge as a hub of transportation, energy, trade and minerals which will result in a safe and secure region.